Research & Analysis

The Ukraine-Russia war has become the world's most consequential test case for AI-enabled warfare. This analysis examines how Ukraine's rapid integration of autonomous drone technology — driven by wartime necessity — is reshaping military strategy, accelerating industry growth, and outpacing the governance frameworks designed to prevent civilian harm. The implications extend well beyond this conflict. 

As autonomous drones reshape modern warfare, the frameworks governing their use have failed to keep pace. This paper examines the use of AI-enabled automatic target recognition (ATR) technology in the Ukraine-Russia war and proposes a hybrid risk management framework — drawing on NIST's AI Risk Management Framework and Canada's Algorithmic Impact Assessment tool — to assess and mitigate civilian harm throughout the drone development lifecycle. The case for governance isn't just ethical. For Ukraine, bound by international humanitarian law and aspiring to EU membership, it's strategic.